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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoNFL
NE@SEA
New England New England Patriots at Seattle Seattle Seahawks · 8:20 PM ET
Predicted winner
NE
Predicted final score
NE 20 - SEA 24
Sportsbook line
+174
Implied probability
35%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NE +4 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 64.5% to 64.6% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.017) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral50% season win rate
- NE · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEANo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- NENo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs