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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
ATL@NYM
Atlanta Atlanta Braves at New York New York Mets · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATL
Predicted final score
ATL 3.5 - NYM 5
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATL +1.5 (-195)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 54.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.050) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.032) - against pick
- market value (-0.017) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
- ATL · hot66% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)31-39
- ATLAvg 5.1 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)46-24
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.77Historical comp-0.04
- [away] Net rating gap -1.89Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -1.11Historical comp-0.07
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs