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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
KC@TB
Kansas City Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
KC 3 - TB 4.5
Sportsbook line
+155
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.8% to 62.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.034) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.012) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- KC · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)43-31
- KCAvg 4.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)32-46
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs