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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
DEN@KC
Denver Denver Broncos at Kansas City Kansas City Chiefs · 8:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
DEN
Predicted final score
DEN 20.3 - KC 22.8
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DEN +2.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 58.3% to 56.3% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.003) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.031) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · neutral50% season win rate
- DEN · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- DENNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs