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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
MIA@STL
Miami Miami Marlins at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 3.5 - STL 5
Sportsbook line
+124
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.7% to 56.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.005) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral53% season win rate
- MIA · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.5 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)42-37
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)43-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs