Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
SF@LAR
San Francisco San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Los Angeles Rams · 8:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 22.5 - LAR 26
Sportsbook line
+157
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +3.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 58.3% to 62.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.010) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.064) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAR · neutral50% season win rate
- SF · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LARNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- SFNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs