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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 22d agoMLB
DET@TEX
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Texas Texas Rangers · 8:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
TEX
Predicted final score
DET 4.5 - TEX 3
Sportsbook line
-109
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TEX +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.3% to 49.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.021) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.088) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TEX · neutral51% season win rate
- DET · neutral44% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TEXAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)44-43
- DETAvg 4.2 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)38-49
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs