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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
BAL@LAA
Baltimore Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels · 9:38 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
BAL 5.3 - LAA 3.8
Sportsbook line
+135
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-123)
Home no-vig implied moved from 40.3% to 40.9% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.002) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAA · neutral41% season win rate
- BAL · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LAAAvg 4.6 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)32-47
- BALAvg 4.7 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)37-42
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs