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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
MIN@ARI
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 3.8 - ARI 5.3
Sportsbook line
+113
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.7% to 55.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.010) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- MIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)38-36
- MINAvg 4.8 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)36-40
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs