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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
TB@KC
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
TB 5.5 - KC 4
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.5% to 49.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.037) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.011) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · neutral41% season win rate
- TB · neutral59% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.2 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)35-50
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)48-33
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs