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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
HOU@DET
Houston Houston Astros at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 3.8 - DET 5.3
Sportsbook line
-109
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
51%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-220)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 50.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.010) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.035) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral42% season win rate
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)34-47
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)40-43
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs