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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 1d agoMLB
COL@CHC
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 8:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 4 - CHC 5.5
Sportsbook line
+185
Implied probability
34%
from market price
Model probability
33%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 65.2% to 66.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.023) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.019) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral51% season win rate
- COL · cold38% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 4.6 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)37-35
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)27-45
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.38Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs