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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 29d agoMLB
HOU@DET
Houston Houston Astros at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 3.8 - DET 5.3
Sportsbook line
+101
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-200)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 52.4% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.009) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral43% season win rate
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)34-46
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)39-43
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs