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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
DET@HOU
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Houston Houston Astros · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 3.5 - HOU 5
Sportsbook line
-108
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-225)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 50.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.014) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral45% season win rate
- DET · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)34-41
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)30-43
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.90Historical comp-0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs