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FreshLine moved
Updated 46m agoMLB
COL@CHC
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 8:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 4.3 - CHC 5.8
Sportsbook line
+155
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-137)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.8% to 62.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.010) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral51% season win rate
- COL · cold38% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)38-36
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)28-46
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.31Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs