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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 29d agoMLB
NYY@BOS
New York New York Yankees at Boston Boston Red Sox · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
BOS
Predicted final score
NYY 4.8 - BOS 3.3
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BOS +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 41.4% to 43.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.036) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.034) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BOS · neutral41% season win rate
- NYY · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BOSAvg 3.9 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)32-46
- NYYAvg 5.1 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)48-31
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs