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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoMLB
NYM@PHI
New York New York Mets at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 7:20 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 3 - PHI 4.5
Sportsbook line
+166
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-129)
Home no-vig implied moved from 62.7% to 63.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.011) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.013) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral53% season win rate
- NYM · neutral45% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-35
- NYMAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)34-41
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs