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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
ARI@CIN
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 4:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
ARI 5.5 - CIN 4
Sportsbook line
+129
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-125)
Home no-vig implied moved from 44.5% to 41.9% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.003) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.043) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral47% season win rate
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)32-36
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)35-34
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.51Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs