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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 18d agoMLB
ARI@SD
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego San Diego Padres · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 3.5 - SD 5
Sportsbook line
+108
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.9% to 54.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.050) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SD · neutral49% season win rate
- ARI · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)44-45
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)44-45
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs