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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
NYM@TOR
New York New York Mets at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 7:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
NYM 4.8 - TOR 3.3
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 49.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.019) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.053) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral47% season win rate
- NYM · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-45
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)35-50
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs