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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
MIN@NYY
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at New York New York Yankees · 1:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 3.3 - NYY 4.8
Sportsbook line
+104
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-205)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.1% to 53.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.020) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.026) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · neutral56% season win rate
- MIN · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 4.8 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)49-39
- MINAvg 4.9 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)43-47
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.26Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs