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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
TB@HOU
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Houston Astros · 3:30 PM ET
Predicted winner
TB
Predicted final score
TB 3.8 - HOU 5.3
Sportsbook line
+102
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TB +1.5 (-195)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.0% to 51.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.025) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.058) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
- TB · hot60% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)44-47
- TBAvg 4.6 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)52-34
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.85Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs