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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoNHL
CAR@VGK
Carolina Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Vegas Golden Knights · 8:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
CAR
Predicted final score
CAR 3.8 - VGK 2.3
Sportsbook line
-115
Implied probability
51%
from market price
Model probability
53%
our estimate
Value gap
+2 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CAR -1.5 (+224)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.8% to 48.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 54% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.078) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.002) - against pick
- market value (-0.026) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 54% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- VGK · hot60% season win rate
- CAR · hot71% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- VGKAvg 4.1 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)39-26
- CARAvg 3.9 scored · 3.2 allowed (season)53-22
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs