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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
SD@CHC
San Diego San Diego Padres at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 8:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 5 - CHC 6.5
Sportsbook line
+130
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-143)
Home no-vig implied moved from 58.2% to 58.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.008) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral55% season win rate
- SD · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 4.9 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)47-38
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)43-40
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs