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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
CHW@BAL
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 6:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 4.5 - BAL 6
Sportsbook line
+129
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-145)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.4% to 58.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.021) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.011) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral45% season win rate
- CHW · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)39-47
- CHWAvg 4.8 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)44-39
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs