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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 18d agoMLB
COL@LAD
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 4.3 - LAD 5.8
Sportsbook line
+200
Implied probability
32%
from market price
Model probability
30%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (+100)
Home no-vig implied moved from 65.2% to 68.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.045) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.046) - against pick
- market value (+0.015) - against pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot65% season win rate
- COL · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)59-32
- COLAvg 4.9 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)37-54
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 2.22Historical comp+0.10
- [home] Net rating gap 2.66Historical comp+0.07
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs