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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 16d agoMLB
KC@NYM
Kansas City Kansas City Royals at New York New York Mets · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
KC 4 - NYM 5.5
Sportsbook line
+166
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
34%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-120)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.1% to 64.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.11). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.008) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.111) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.11). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral41% season win rate
- KC · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)38-54
- KCAvg 4.3 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)38-54
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs