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Yesterday
Updated 3d agoMLB
STL@MIN
St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Minnesota Twins · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
STL 3.8 - MIN 5.3
Sportsbook line
-110
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN -1.5 (+180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 50.0% (flat).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.019) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (0.000) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral45% season win rate
- STL · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINAvg 4.6 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)32-39
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)37-30
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.75Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs