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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 30d agoMLB
MIL@CIN
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
MIL 5.5 - CIN 4
Sportsbook line
+116
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-139)
Home no-vig implied moved from 42.6% to 44.0% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.023) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral47% season win rate
- MIL · hot62% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)37-41
- MILAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)48-29
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -1.03Historical comp-0.06
- [away] Net rating gap -2.21Historical comp-0.06
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.18Historical comp-0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs