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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
PHI@WSH
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Washington Nationals · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
PHI
Predicted final score
PHI 4 - WSH 5.5
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PHI +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 53.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.006) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.017) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral51% season win rate
- PHI · neutral55% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)40-38
- PHIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)42-35
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs