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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 30d agoMLB
ATH@SF
Athletics Athletics at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 9:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
ATH 5 - SF 3.5
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-162)
Home no-vig implied moved from 47.6% to 47.5% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.010) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.022) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral41% season win rate
- ATH · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)32-46
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.3 allowed (season)38-41
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.52Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.56Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs