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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
PIT@PHI
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
PIT 5.3 - PHI 3.8
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT -1.5 (+151)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.4% to 50.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.018) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.002) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral56% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.4 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)47-37
- PITAvg 5.1 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)42-42
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs