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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
ARI@TB
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 3 - TB 4.5
Sportsbook line
+160
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-135)
Home no-vig implied moved from 63.0% to 63.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.011) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.003) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)46-33
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)41-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs