Back to dashboard
FreshLine moved
Updated 43m agoMLB
LAA@ARI
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 3:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 3.8 - ARI 5.3
Sportsbook line
+145
Implied probability
40%
from market price
Model probability
39%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.7% to 60.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.019) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.010) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- LAA · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)37-36
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)30-44
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.41Historical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs