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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 15d agoMLB
ATH@DET
Athletics Athletics at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATH
Predicted final score
ATH 3.8 - DET 5.3
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATH +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.8% to 56.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.002) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.009) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral46% season win rate
- ATH · neutral45% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.3 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)42-50
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.4 allowed (season)41-51
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.40Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs