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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
PHI@WSH
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Washington Nationals · 6:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
PHI 5 - WSH 3.5
Sportsbook line
+154
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
38%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +1.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 39.0% to 37.7% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.011) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral52% season win rate
- PHI · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)41-38
- PHIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)42-36
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.81Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.09Historical comp+0.07
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs