Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
CIN@MIL
Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers · 8:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
CIN 3.8 - MIL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+135
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 58.9% to 59.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.035) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.008) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIL · hot63% season win rate
- CIN · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MILAvg 5.2 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)52-31
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)39-45
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.27Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Net rating gap 2.22Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.95Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs