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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
NYM@TOR
New York New York Mets at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 7:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 3.5 - TOR 5
Sportsbook line
+108
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-194)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 53.8% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.013) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.030) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral46% season win rate
- NYM · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)39-45
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)35-49
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs