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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
SD@LAD
San Diego San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 3.5 - LAD 5
Sportsbook line
+210
Implied probability
31%
from market price
Model probability
31%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (+105)
Home no-vig implied moved from 69.0% to 68.8% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.025) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.015) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot65% season win rate
- SD · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.4 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)58-31
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)43-44
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.89Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Net rating gap 2.31Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.43Historical comp+0.09
- [home] Home PPG 5.4 vs avg 4.7Historical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs