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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 44d agoMLB
TOR@CHC
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 2:20 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
TOR 3.8 - CHC 5.3
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-182)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 55.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.031) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral53% season win rate
- TOR · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 4.7 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-36
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)37-39
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.68Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs