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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
TOR@CHC
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Chicago Cubs · 2:20 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
TOR 3.8 - CHC 5.3
Sportsbook line
+107
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.3% to 53.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.008) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.008) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CHC · neutral52% season win rate
- TOR · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CHCAvg 4.6 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)39-36
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)37-38
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.51Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs