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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 33d agoMLB
MIN@ARI
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 3:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 4 - ARI 5.5
Sportsbook line
+116
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-175)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.1% to 55.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.010) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
- MIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)39-37
- MINAvg 4.9 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)37-41
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.59Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.55Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs