Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
CHC@NYM
Chicago Chicago Cubs at New York New York Mets · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
CHC 5.3 - NYM 3.8
Sportsbook line
+108
Implied probability
46%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 46.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.010) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.046) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
- CHC · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)34-43
- CHCAvg 4.8 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)40-37
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs