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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
CHC@MIL
Chicago Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers · 7:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHC
Predicted final score
CHC 2.8 - MIL 4.3
Sportsbook line
+195
Implied probability
32%
from market price
Model probability
33%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHC +1.5 (-105)
Home no-vig implied moved from 69.5% to 67.6% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.017) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIL · hot63% season win rate
- CHC · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MILAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)49-29
- CHCAvg 4.9 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)44-37
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs