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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
NYM@ATL
New York New York Mets at Atlanta Atlanta Braves · 7:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATL
Predicted final score
NYM 5.3 - ATL 3.8
Sportsbook line
-110
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
51%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATL +1.5 (-195)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 50.0% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.046) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.025) - against pick
- market value (+0.015) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATL · neutral59% season win rate
- NYM · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATLAvg 4.7 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)50-35
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)36-51
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs