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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
ARI@TB
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 3.5 - TB 5
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 55.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.015) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.065) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral58% season win rate
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)45-33
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)41-39
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs