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FreshLine moved
Updated 25m agoMLB
CHW@DET
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 2.5 - DET 4
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-185)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.4% to 56.3% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.028) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.094) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.09). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral41% season win rate
- CHW · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)31-44
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)39-35
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.52Historical comp+0.03
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.64Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs