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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
NYY@DET
New York New York Yankees at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
NYY 5 - DET 3.5
Sportsbook line
+105
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-155)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 46.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.034) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.001) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral43% season win rate
- NYY · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)33-44
- NYYAvg 5.1 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)46-30
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs