Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 9d agoNCAAF
HAW@STAN
Hawai'i Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Stanford Cardinal · 7:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
HAW
Predicted final score
HAW 23.5 - STAN 27
Sportsbook line
+158
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
37%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HAW +3.5 (-114)
Home no-vig implied moved from 62.0% to 62.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (0.000) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.014) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STAN · neutral50% season win rate
- HAW · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STANNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- HAWNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs