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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
SF@MIA
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Miami Miami Marlins · 4:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 3 - MIA 4.5
Sportsbook line
+122
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.3% to 56.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.017) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.028) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIA · neutral49% season win rate
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)37-38
- SFAvg 4.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)31-43
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.46Historical comp+0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs