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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
CHC@MIL
Chicago Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHC
Predicted final score
CHC 3.3 - MIL 4.8
Sportsbook line
+138
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHC +1.5 (-155)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.7% to 59.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.019) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.008) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIL · hot63% season win rate
- CHC · neutral54% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MILAvg 5.2 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)50-29
- CHCAvg 4.9 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)44-38
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.87Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs